Archives de la catégorie Stratfor : Les analyses de la semaine

STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : 9/11 AND THE 9-YEAR WAR

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September 8, 2010 | By George Friedman

 

It has now been nine years since al Qaeda attacked the United States. It has been nine years in which the primary focus of the United States has been on the Islamic world. In addition to a massive investment in homeland security, the United States has engaged in two multi-year, multi-divisional wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, inserted forces in other countries in smaller operations and conducted a global covert campaign against al Qaeda and other radical jihadist groups.

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STRATFOR SECURITY REPORT / GAUGING THE THREAT OF AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK

 

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September 9, 2010 | By Scott Stewart and Nate Hughes

 

Over the past decade there has been an ongoing debate over the threat posed by electromagnetic pulse (EMP) to modern civilization. This debate has been the most heated perhaps in the United States, where the commission appointed by Congress to assess the threat to the United States warned of the dangers posed by EMP in reports released in 2004 and 2008. The commission also called for a national commitment to address the EMP threat by hardening the national infrastructure.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : THE KYRGYZSTAN CRISIS AND THE RUSSIAN DILEMMA

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June 15, 2010 | By Peter Zeihan

 

STRATFOR often discusses how Russia is on a bit of a roll. The U.S. distraction in the Middle East has offered Russia a golden opportunity to re-establish its spheres of influence in the region, steadily expanding the Russian zone of control into a shape that is eerily reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. Since 2005, when this process began, Russia has clearly reasserted itself as the dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine, and has intimidated places like Georgia and Turkmenistan into a sort of silent acquiescence.

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THE LIMITS OF PUBLIC OPINION: ARABS, ISRAELIS AND THE STRATEGIC BALANCE

June 8, 2010 | By George Friedman

 

Last week’s events off the coast of Israel continue to resonate. Turkish-Israeli relations have not quite collapsed since then but are at their lowest level since Israel’s founding. U.S.-Israeli tensions have emerged, and European hostility toward Israel continues to intensify. The question has now become whether substantial consequences will follow from the incident. Put differently, the question is whether and how it will be exploited beyond the arena of public opinion.

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VU DES USA : US EMPIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

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Third World Diplomatic Cooperation and the Future of US Empire in the Middle East

Friday 04 June 2010

by: Stephen Maher, T R U T H O U T | Report

 

Last week, Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Reccep Erdogan announced a breakthrough agreement on the Iranian nuclear impasse that they claimed would make further sanctions on Iran “unnecessary.” The agreement, accepted by Iran, was immediately rejected by the US and its European allies, who chose instead to continue the three-decade long US effort to strangle and isolate Iran by all means available.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : GAZA FLOTILLAS AND THE WARS OF PUBLIC OPINION

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May 31, 2010 | By George Friedman

 

“The Turkish flotilla aimed to replicate the Exodus story or, more precisely, to define the global image of Israel in the same way the Zionists defined the image that they wanted to project”

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THE BOOK BEHIND THE MOVIE “GREEN ZONE” : IMPERIAL LIFE IN THE EMERALD CITY

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The Book Imperial Life in the Emerald City is an unprecedented account of life in Baghdad’s Green Zone, a walled-off enclave of towering plants, posh villas, and sparkling swimming pools that was the headquarters for the American occupation of Iraq.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : THREE POINTS OF VIEW: THE UNITED STATES, PAKISTAN AND INDIA

April 28, 2010 | By Peter Zeihan

 

In recent weeks, STRATFOR has explored how the U.S. government has been seeing its interests in the Middle East and South Asia shift. When it comes down to it, the United States is interested in stability at the highest level - a sort of cold equilibrium among the region’s major players that prevents any one of them, or a coalition of them - from overpowering the others and projecting power outward. Lire la suite »

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : KYRGYZSTAN AND THE RUSSIAN RESURGENCE

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April 13, 2010 | By Lauren Goodrich Lire la suite »

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STRATFOR SECURITY REPORT / THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE

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April 15, 2010 | By Scott Stewart and Ben West

 

On April 9, a woman armed with a pistol and with explosives strapped to her body approached a group of police officers in the northern Caucasus village of Ekazhevo, in the southern Russian republic of Ingushetia. The police officers were preparing to launch an operation to kill or capture militants in the area.

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STRATFOR SECURITY REPORT / USING INTELLIGENCE FROM THE AL-MABHOUH HIT

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March 3, 2010 | By Fred Burton and Ben West Lire la suite »

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE: A U.S.-IRANIAN DEAL

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March 1, 2010 | By George Friedman Lire la suite »

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STRATFOR RED ALERT : TALIBAN ASSAULT ON KABUL

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Stratfor Today » / January 18, 2010

 

A major Taliban attack began on Kabul Jan. 18. The fighting is being reported by both American and Taliban sources. According to one American source, reports of an imminent attack began circulating Jan. 17. Heavy fighting is being reported at multiple locations, apparently focused around the Serena Hotel. The hotel, which is frequented by foreign journalists and government officials, has been attacked in the past. According to the Taliban, 20 suicide bombers are taking part in the attack. They claim the Presidential Palace, Ministries of Justice, Finance, Mines and Industry are among the targets. There reports of casualties, but numbers and locations are unclear.

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STRATFOR SECURITY WEEKLY REPORT / PROFILING: SKETCHING THE FACE OF JIHADISM

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January 20, 2010 | By Scott Stewart

 

On Jan. 4, 2010, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) adopted new rules that would increase the screening of citizens from 14 countries who want to fly to the United States as well as travelers of all nationalities who are flying to the United States from one of the 14 countries. These countries are: Afghanistan, Algeria, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL WEEKLY REPORT : ISRAEL, TURKEY AND LOW SEATSMONDAY

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January 18, 2010 / By George Friedman

 

Last week a small crisis with potentially serious implications blew up between Israel and Turkey. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon summoned Turkish Ambassador to Israel Ahmet Oguz Celikkol to a meeting Jan. 11 to protest a Turkish soap opera that depicted Israeli agents kidnapping Palestinian children.

 

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STRATFOR SECURITY WEEKLY REPORT / AIRLINE SECURITY: GENTLE SOLUTIONS TO A VEXING PROBLEM

January 13, 2010 | By Fred Burton and Ben West

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U.S. President Barack Obama outlined a set of new policies Jan. 7 in response to the Dec. 25, 2009 Northwest Airlines bombing attempt, which came the closest to a successful attack on a U.S. flight since Richard Reid’s failed shoe-bombing in December 2001. As in the aftermath of that attempt, a flurry of accusations, excuses and policy prescriptions have emanated from Washington since Christmas Day concerning U.S. airline security. Whatever changes actually result from the most recent bombing attempt, they will likely be more successful at pacifying the public and politicians than preventing future attacks.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL REPORT / THE KHOST ATTACK AND THE INTELLIGENCE WAR CHALLENGE

January 11, 2010 | By George Friedman and Scott Stewart

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As Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi exited the vehicle that brought him onto Forward Operating Base (FOB) Chapman in Khost, Afghanistan, on Dec. 30, 2009, security guards noticed he was behaving strangely. They moved toward al-Balawi and screamed demands that he take his hand out of his pocket, but instead of complying with the officers’ commands, al-Balawi detonated the suicide device he was wearing. The explosion killed al-Balawi, three security contractors, four CIA officers and the Jordanian General Intelligence Department (GID) officer who was al-Balawi’s handler. The vehicle shielded several other CIA officers at the scene from the blast. The CIA officers killed included the chief of the base at Khost and an analyst from headquarters who reportedly was the agency’s foremost expert on al Qaeda. The agency’s second-ranking officer in Afghanistan was allegedly among the officers who survived.

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STRATFOR GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT : THE CHRISTMAS DAY AIRLINER ATTACK AND THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS

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January 4, 2010

By George Friedman, Stratfor CEO

 

As is well known, a Nigerian national named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to destroy a passenger aircraft traveling from Amsterdam to Detroit on Dec. 25, 2009. Metal detectors cannot pinpoint the chemical in the device he sought to detonate, PETN. The PETN was strapped to his groin. Since a detonator could have been detected, the attacker chose - or had chosen for him - a syringe filled with acid for use as an improvised alternative means to initiate the detonation. In the event, the device failed to detonate, but it did cause a fire in a highly sensitive area of the attacker’s body. An alert passenger put out the fire. The plane landed safely. It later emerged that the attacker’s father, a prominent banker in Nigeria, had gone to the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria to warn embassy officials of his concerns that his son might be involved with jihadists.

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STRATFOR SECURITY REPORT / JIHADISM IN 2010: THE THREAT CONTINUES

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January 6, 2010

By Scott Stewart

 

For the past several years, STRATFOR has published an annual forecast on al Qaeda and the jihadist movement. Since our first jihadist forecast in January 2006, we have focused heavily on the devolution of jihadism from a phenomenon primarily involving the core al Qaeda group to one based mainly on the wider jihadist movement and the devolving, decentralized threat it poses.

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STARTFOR SECURITY WEEKLY : MEXICO, THE WAR WITH THE CARTELS IN 2009

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December 9, 2009

STRATFOR INTELLIGENCE REPORT :

By Scott Stewart and Alex Posey

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